A lot of Conservatives and Second Amendment defenders are up in arms today because several Republican senators voted today to advance new gun legislation to the floor of the senate for debate. Sixteen Republicans, led by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.), joined with Harry Reid and senate Democrats to move the bill to the floor by a 68-31 vote. Two Democrats voted against bringing the bill to the floor. This vote doomed, for now at least, the filibuster effort led by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah).
But let's take a step back and think about this for a second. We have congressional midterms in about 18 months. There are several Democratic senators retiring and there are also a few Democratic senators in red states, such as Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), who will be up for reelection. Begich only won his seat in 2008 by one percentage point.
Bringing this bill to a floor debate is going to force these red state Democrats into a really difficult position. Do they vote to pass the bill as is and support their president, and by doing so take massive political hits back home? Or do they break against the president in an effort to shore up tight election prospects next year? If this bill had never come to the floor, these senators would never have to take a stand on the bill. A GOP filibuster would have actually hurt GOP election chances in 2014.
And the bill is already in trouble. The signs of defection are already there. According to the Fox News article linked above, both Begich and Pryor voted with Republicans to block floor debate. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) is co-sponsoring an amendment to the bill along with Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) which would scale back the call for universal background checks. How the senators up for reelection vote on this amendment will also be closely followed.
Landrieu could be in trouble herself. Although she is known as a very conservative Democrat and her handling of Katrina boosted her popularity, her vote to move this legislation to the floor today won't be taken lightly back home. I've already talked to family in Louisiana who assure me they're dead set against her vote today. And if she ultimately votes in favor of the legislation, the three-term senator could find herself in a tight race after coasting to a 52-46 win in 2008. All of these senators will be interesting to watch for sure in the coming weeks.
Jimmy Williams
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